Former welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre and fellow 170-pound contender Josh Koscheck will collide at UFC 74: “Respect” on August 25 to determine the number one contender in the division.
It’s the other big fight of the evening in addition to the heavyweight championship showdown between Randy Couture and Gabriel Gonzaga.
The match up between GSP and Kos, however, could be the show-stealer. That’s because these guys may be the two best athletes currently competing in the UFC. Both are well-trained, well-rounded and well, talented.
Most fans and sportsbooks predict that St. Pierre will come away with the win. In fact, Bodog.com has St. Pierre as a solid favorite right now at -240 (Koscheck is +190).
Let’s dig a little deeper to try and find the smart bet on this match up, which from our perspective, might not be such a “lock” in favor of our favorite Canadian.
Koscheck is an insane wrestler. He is a former NCAA champion and All American at Edinboro University who made the transition to mixed martial arts in 2004. Most of his early finishes came by way of rear n*ked choke — the classic win for great wrestlers who overwhelm their opponents on the ground and eventually submit them when they give up their backs.
He’s not just a wrestler, however.
Since his stint on The Ultimate Fighter (TUF) Koscheck steadily improved his standup. Those skills were probably best displayed in his fight with Sanchez. Watch the replay if you fell asleep during the fight — Koscheck landed some hard, crisp punches during that bout. And although he did not finish that fight, he did show tight jabs and, of course, his favorite overhand rights. He utilized good footwork and movement to score steadily through each round.
Training partner Jon Fitch recently had this to say about Kos:
“His training has been amazing. His ground skills are good and his stand up is phenomenal right now. He has a lot of power in his hands and his clinch is well too. The only thing is St-Pierre has no idea where Koscheck is going to fight this fight. He doesn’t know whether to defend the takedown or stand and try to counter him. He has no clue. “
Indeed, his growth as a fighter, which includes more thoughtful game planning, has turned Koscheck into an extremely formidable opponent.
But does he have the tools to finish a fighter of George St. Pierre’s caliber?
“Rush” is coming off of a devastating (at least mentally) upset loss to Matt Serra via technical knockout at UFC 69. His physical gifts are undeniable; however, his mental toughness is often the topic of much debate. Prior to his most recent loss, St. Pierre ripped through a “Who’s Who” of top 170-pound fighters such as Matt Hughes, BJ Penn, Karo Parisyan, Sean Sherk, Frank Trigg, Jason “Mayhem” Miller, etc.
At just 26-years-old, he’s got all the experience and talent to become champion again sometime soon … at least on paper.
Koscheck has a great jab and a predictable overhand right. On the ground, he’s definitely outclassed in terms of Brazilian jiu-jitsu, but he does have the wrestling skills to defend well and put St. Pierre on his back. From there, his only chance for a finish is to catch him quickly with a big punch or elbow because St. Pierre will work hard to escape.
St. Pierre has faced many world class wrestlers/grapplers and handled their take down attempts well and put every one of them on their back. His dominant performance over Sherk clearly shows that he knows how to beat good wrestlers.
Then again, Kos is on a different level and will more than likely be able to secure more takedowns than most. But, once the fight hits the mat he is going to have a hell of a time keeping it there — St. Pierre rarely finds himself stuck in bad positions.
So let’s finally try and sort this out.
St. Pierre finishes most fights — only three of his wins have come by way of decision. Since 2003 (Karo), he’s fought top-level competition and finished all of them in convincing fashion (sans BJ Penn). On the other hand, Koscheck does not have the skill set to finish this fight nor is he proven against top competition.
Without a doubt, this has all the makings of an incredible, fast-paced fight. St. Pierre will have to bring his “A” game to handle Kos, but a prepared GSP should win this fight 80 percent of the time.
The current odds (-240) from Bodog.com indicate that there is a smart value bet on St. Pierre. However, as the fight gets closer, we’re seeing the line get bigger on this one.
Therefore, pull the trigger as soon possible if you want to put a little action on St. Pierre. It’s a solid bet right now. And if you can find it for less than -240, then you got yourself a sweet deal.
