UFC betting odds

We’re less than one month out from UFC 74: “Respect” on August 25 from the Mandalay Bay Events Center in Las Vegas, Nevada.

Still, it’s not going to stop us from taking a quick look at the early line for the main event of the monster pay-per-view (PPV) show.

Especially when you consider that most sportsbooks have current UFC Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture (+110) listed as the underdog against Gabriel “Napao” Gonzaga (-140). That’s right, the man, no check that, the legend atop the division is not favored to win.

Let’s just hope for bettors sake that it stays this way … but don’t hold your breath.

Gonzaga burst onto the scene with his devastating knockout of feared striker Mirko Cro Cop at UFC 70: “Nations Collide.” Up until that point, the Brazilian jiu-jitsu mundial champion had flown relatively low under the public radar.

What a difference a head kick makes.

Couture, of course, returned from retirement to shock the world at UFC 68, dominating the much larger Tim Sylvia en route to an improbable — and electrifying — upset unanimous decision win. He is without question the most decorated and beloved fighters in the history of the promotion for various reasons.

“The Natural” also happens to be on the wrong side of 40, which is perhaps the reason oddsmakers favor the much younger Gonzaga in this bout.

But here are the key differences: Stamina and style.

Gonzaga has not gone much past the five-minute mark in any of his fights, bringing into question his ability to go 25 minutes if the fight lasts that long. On the flip side, Couture just endured 25 minutes locked inside a cage with a man twice his size … and he manhandled him.

Although Gonzaga has improved considerably in his stand up, his ability to control fights on the ground is his bread and butter. His best chance to win this fight is to get Couture to the ground and control him there, working out a submission or possibly end the fight with a little ground and pound.

However, when was the last time you saw anyone control Randy Couture on the ground?

Perhaps a case can be made for Josh Barnett or Ricco Rodriguez way back when — both of whom also had significant size advantages (and “The Baby Face Assassin” even tested positive for steroids after the fight). But that seems like eons ago, and Couture just recently held his own in a grappling match with probably the best grappler on the planet, Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza.

Put simply, he is a world class Greco Roman wrestler with a wide array of takedowns, roughs opponents up in the clinch and boasts a great defensive game. He also knows a thing or two about working dudes on the mat, pounding out figthers Pedro Rizzo, Chuck Liddell, Kevin Randleman and Vitor Belfort, among others.

Randy’s best chance to win this one is to use a similar plan to the Sylvia fight — stay busy from the outside using a very active/technical standup, change levels and then pounce when Gonzaga provides and opening. From there, Couture can soften him up and score a possible late round technical knockout or take it by decision.

This is a very tough fight for Couture, with some interesting obstacles on the ground (Randy’s words). Naturally, anything can happen. But I’ll take Couture’s conditioning, experience, and excellent game planning to remain champion.

Remember, too, that Couture relishes the underdog role and has won 10 of 11 career fights in that capacity (Liddell II the lone exception).

No doubt about it, if the betting lines stay close to this, Couture to win is a very smart and perhaps profitable bet.